U.S Foreign Policy & Intelligence
By USCFL
What's the most dangerous geopolitical development in the 21st century? Iran's emergence as the Middle East regional superpower. Why? Because it places the center of the world's increasingly stretched energy resources more and more under the influence of an oil-rich, fundamentalist, pro-terrorist, anti-Semitic regime that has not only nuclear ambitions but the means to realize them.
Iran's malign hand now reaches directly into southern Iraq, to Syria, to Hizballah in Lebanon, to Hamas in Gaza, and to the shores of the Mediterranean. Iran's long shadow now casts a deepening pall over the Sunni Arab countries of the region, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. All the Sunni gulf states have sizable Shiite populations, which Iran could turn against them.
What once promised to be a seed for democracy in the despotic Middle East, a new free state of Iraq, has betrayed every hope in an increasingly violent religious schism aggravated by Iranian meddling. The elections in Iraq led not to collaboration between different ethnic and religious groups but to a Shiite majority with a mandate to introduce what is, in effect, a radical Islamic republic.
The West will have to decide what is more dangerous - to attack the infrastructure of the Iranians sooner rather than later or to deal with an Iranian nuclear capability after the fact
What Will it Take for Regime Change in Syria?
We could start this opinion piece by saying "Here we go again" but that would demean immensely the life of Syria's latest victim Pierre Amin Gemayel who was shot down today in the Jdeideh area outside Beirut on the same day that the UN is to vote on establishing the international court to prosecute the killers of Rafik Hariri.
Lebanese and Syrian reformers do not believe in coincidences anymore when it comes to the regime in Syria. The message being sent by Syria's Bashar al-Assad is loud and clear: Stop the international tribunal or Lebanon will suffer the consequences. As if Lebanon has not suffered enough already.
The killing of Pierre Gemayel is a clear, multi-purpose signal but none is more powerful than the one being sent to the White House: You are impotent, weak, and unable to stop Assad from ramming his violent nature down your throat.
There is a point in history or in one's destiny when time simply stops. It stops because the question before us are of such immense magnitude that we find ourselves unable, not only to answer them, but more importantly to question why we are asking them in the first place. The useless killing of an innocent young and promising Lebanese politician, once again, is forcing us to ask the hard questions. It is one thing to believe that reforms in the Arab world, which could usher moderate Islam, freedom, and democracy, are taking a back seat but quite another to think that they are dead. Unfortunately, the White House response to Iran and Syria, except with meaningless words, makes us believe that they are simply dead.
What will it take for regime change in Syria? How many more lives? In Lebanon and in Iraq? Are we being naive to think that an international tribunal that may indict Bashar al-Assad will stop this murderer from another act of violence? Are we naive to believe that Assad will give a pass to Iraq simply because his foreign minister said so? Since when did Assad make a promise and stood by it?
The Iranian Mullahs are building an axis of evil that stretches from South Lebanon to East of Mashhad on the Aghani borders. Then, they will embark on sinking Afghanistan in the same quagmire that Iraq is experiencing; that if they do not build a bomb and use it against Saudi Arabia or Israel first.
The options are clear: Iraq, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, and Lebanon will either be destroyed or will implode within two years if we do not stop Iran and Syria today. The US has the capabilities to impose order but for this to happen, the President must be the Winston Churchill of our times. The Ahmadinajead-Assad axis of 2006 reminds me of the Hitler-Mussolini axis of 1938. Either we stand-up and collapse these regimes or we wait until disaster hits, real disaster that will make 9/11 look like a child's play.
The options are clear: The United States can no longer afford to look weak by seeking to "talk" to its enemies who continue on their path of destruction. When the stronger Assad gave sanctuary to the PKK, Turkey simply amassed its troops on the Syrian borders and in no time Assad capitulated. The US has no choice but to send its troops to be stationed on the Syrian borders from the East, from the South, and from the West. Only then, Assad will realize that it is in his best interests to stop his killing machine in Iraq, to quit Lebanon once and for all, and to draw a line for his support of terrorism all around him.
And if he does not, let the smart bombs fly. At least, it will disrupt the operation of the fighters Syria sends to Iraq every month to kill Iraqis.
Iranian Mullahs Influence in Syria is Tipping the Balance
Syria's Assad has recently crossed a threshold in alliance with the Iranian Mullahs manifested by the fact that they are given a religious Carte Blanche in Syria. Unlike the son, Assad father never allowed Khomeini or the Wilayyat al-Faqih to have any influence inside the country.
Syrians have been observing over the last year a dangerous phenomena mostly witnessed by an alarming number of non-Shiia turning to Khomeini-style Shiia in return for financial rewards. Whole villages and urban areas are adopting the Hezbollah model whereby clinics, schools, and social services are provided by Iran in return for Syrians to convert to Shiism. Two months ago, two centers for teaching Persian have opened in Latikyia. Most of those converting are Sunni Muslims.
Assad is logically calculating that if Hezbollah, with its 15,000 fighters and a God-like following of its figure head Sheikh Nasrallah, can achieve with a $100 million a year the military prowess it exhibited against Israel then why not turn all of Syria into a larger Hezbollah laboratory in the hope of attaining the same results. However, as Ba'athists are infamous for their miscalculation, Assad is reasoning that Sunnis in Syria, representing 70% of the population, will stand-by while Syria turns into Hezbollah-country the way they stood-by while his minority rule pilfered and destroyed the Syrian society.
Assad has survived many dangers but many Syrians believe he has crossed a line that could spell doom for his regime. It is one thing to strategically ally the country with Iran but quite another to let Iran shape its identity. The anger building amongst the Sunni Syrians is taking a life of its own and the USCFL senses that this anger cannot be stopped if it reaches the boiling point. We are just at the beginning of a perilous curve that not even Assad understands its danger.
Scores of Syrians have been in contact with inside Syria, some of whom are some of the most moderate Ulemmas and Imams, have expressed profound resentment at the fact that Sunnism is under attack by Iran. Many have voiced the following logic: We see the next confrontation in the Middle East along the lines of Israel vs. Iran and we have no choice but to stand by Israel to protect our religion. This logic emanates from the fact that no Sunni Arab country has the military competence to stand-up to the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis and also because Israel, unlike Iran, is not interested in converting Sunni Muslims.
The world witnessed the beginning of this Israel-Iran upcoming confrontation when Saudi Arabia attacked Hezbollah's recklessness in Lebanon during the Israel-Hezbollah debacle rather than utter its usual condemnation of Israel or support Hezbollah as was expected of an Arab nation to do.