LEBANON – END OF AN ERA
Prof. Eyal Zisser: ’Syrian Expulsion From Lebanon Could Spell End Of Assad Regime In Damascus!’
‘Lebanese Developments Like Fall of Bitter Enemies Such As Iraq’s Saddam Husein Are Very Encouraging
‘Putin’s Sale Of Missiles To Syria Has More To Do With Russian–U.S. Relations Than It Does With Middle East’
Broadcast April 27th, 2005 on IsraCast.com

Syrians Move Out
Syria’s expulsion from Lebanon may have far reaching ramifications in the area; that’s the assessment of Prof. Eyal Zisser of Tel Aviv University. Zisser, a well-known expert on Syria, says the Alewite regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad could now be on its way out. Interviewed by David Essing, Prof. Zisser presents his regional analysis of the evolving situation and what he believes is behind the Russian sale of SA- 18 ground to air missiles to Syria that was criticized by Israel on the eve of President Vladimir Putin’s visit.
Prof. Eyal Zisser
Professor Eyal Zisser of Tel Aviv University, a leading Israeli expert on Syria, was interviewed by David Essing:
Listen to the Interview (9:26)
David Essing: Professor Zisser, after 29 years the Syrian troops are now out of Lebanon but do they have any other cards to try and continue their domination, perhaps say through Hezbollah?
Prof. Zisser: Clearly they have some cards in their hands, like Hezbollah and other forces that are still loyal to Syria. But we have to remember, it's not that Syria left Lebanon, Syria was expelled out of Lebanon under heavy international as well as Lebanese pressure. The Syrians are now in defense. The problem or the threat is not anymore to the presence in Lebanon but to the survival of the Syrian regime, and I don't think that this sensitive situation allows them to operate in the way they operated in Lebanon a year ago or two years ago. So while they have some cards I think that this is an end of an era, Syria is out of Lebanon and it will be very difficult for them to make a comeback.
David Essing: You sir actually believe that the Alawi regime, this minority cult in Syria might be at risk now, that there could be a regime change in Syria?
Prof. Zisser: Well, this is what the American administration is up to. It seems to me, reading the American newspapers and listening to the rhetoric of the current American administration, that that's actually what they are up to, to bring to a regime change in Syria. I think that the threat is external; this is to say that the Americans are now threatening the survival of the regime. Domestically, I can't see any real threat to Bashar El Assad and to his regime. There is no organized liberal opposition in Syria, so I think the Syrians know quite well that the problems are in their relations with the U.S.
David Essing: Will there be a power vacuum in Lebanon after the Syrian pull-out, and if so might Iran try and exploit it with the Shiite residents of that country?
Prof. Zisser: The Iranians might play a role but first of all we must remember that Iran is also in defense because of the international pressure regarding the nuclear issue. The Iranians are in defense, and we have also to remember that Iran may appeal to some of the Lebanese, clearly the extremist Shiite Hezbollah, but most of the Lebanese, the Christians, the Sunnis and the moderate Shiites, will not cooperate with Iran. They prefer to see Iran as well out of Lebanon like Syria is now out of Lebanon, so I don't think that Iran can become a broker in Lebanon.
David Essing: If so, if Iran supplied the arms and the arms were transported through Syria to Hezbollah, might we also be seeing the demise by Hezbollah as the military power in Lebanon today?
Prof. Zisser: This is the issue on the agenda, the future of Hezbollah after the Syrian's were expelled out of Lebanon. There is heavy international as well as Lebanese pressure on Hezbollah to disarm, to dismantle its military wing. I think the first priority of the Lebanese and the international community is to hold democratic elections in the next few months, maybe in late May or early June, and to establish a new government based on opposition elements. Then there will be, I believe, a demand backed by a wide Lebanese consensus that demands from Hezbollah to disarm. I think that Hezbollah will find it very difficult to oppose and to reject such demand, they will try to maneuver but I think that the room for maneuvering is becoming very narrow.
David Essing: At the same time we've been hearing from IDF intelligence, and in deed there was what is considered a serious Hezbollah attempt over the weekend by planting a cluster of bombs to hit Israeli troops in the Har-Dov area, do you think that Hezbollah might now try and carry out some kind of escalation on the northern border, to prove that it is still an active and important player?
Prof. Zisser: I think that they are not looking for an escalation but clearly they look to preserve the equation, to preserve the rules of the game that they were able to maintain from the last four years, this is to say we are allowed to attack Israeli positions in the Shaba farms area (U.N. has ruled that area is part of Syria not Lebanon- D.E.), we are allowed to have military presence in the south. All these limited attacks are not aimed at big escalation but at maintaining the image of the organization of Hezbollah as a militant organization that fights Israel and to preserve the rules of the game that were there for the last 4-5 years.
David Essing: But if an independent Lebanese government takes control, might there not be pressure on this Lebanese government to send the Lebanese army down to the Israeli border and take control of the bordered area? Because up until now, Beirut has more or less been able to use the excuse that we're not really in power, the Syrians are calling the shots.
Prof. Zisser: Yes, and I believe this will be the interest of any future Lebanese government and Hezbollah knows it. That's why they didn't want the Syrians to get out of Lebanon, and I will not be surprised if this might happen, the deployment of Lebanese units along the border. And I will not be surprised if Hezbollah will be ready to stop its military activities along the border because the support of the Lebanese consensus is very important for this organization. It's exactly like the case of Hamas, the Hamas is listening to what the Palestinian public opinion has to say, and that's exactly what the Hezbollah is doing.
David Essing: So from an Israeli point of view there are positive prospects ahead, perhaps if a democratic Lebanese government takes over?
Prof. Zisser: Yes, the same as with Iraq, the collapse of the Saddam regime that was a bitter enemy of Israel and the weakening of Syria and now the disarming of the Hezbollah, It's very interesting, very surprising, very encouraging from Israeli perspective, and it happens without any Israeli involvement and that's a good thing.
David Essing: But on the other hand, with Russian president Vladimir Putin now in the area visiting Israel as well, what do you make out of this Russian sale of SA-18 ground to air missiles to the Syrians at this time? Is this an indication that the Russians are really back in the Middle East, want to be considered a Middle East player now?
Prof. Zisser: That's what they would like to do and it has to do with the American Russian relations. There is an American involvement in Georgia, in Kiev, so Russia needs an answer. There's nothing the Middle East has to do with the American Russian relations, but let us remember, Russia is not anymore the super-power it used to be. What it's going to supply to Syria will not change anything in the region. The total superiority of the Israeli Air Force and the Israeli army is very clear. So I don't think we should pay too much attention to what the Russians are doing, I mean anyway they didn't stop the Americans from launching the war against Saddam Hussein, and they didn't interfere in the American involvement in Lebanon. So we have to respect the Russians, they used to be a super-power, they are an important country but for me it's like the involvement of Brazil or India, no real practical meaning in this region anymore.