Missed OpportunitiesUS Intelligence Failures in the Middle East
By Nagi N. Najjar
The momentum in the ME is an intelligence momentum, not a military one. When the US military defeated Saddam Hussein and his criminals in power, the right decision by President Bush, US intelligence failed in consolidating and cultivating the ground, something every Intelligence service rushes to do after a battle is won on the ground, and adopting the right strategy to place Iraq's both neighbors on defensive tracks, specifically a malcontent Syria who is the easier target compared to Iran. Everybody in the Middle East understands what it takes to win the nature of this war except the leadership of the US Intelligence community who are too busy articulating and promoting "Democracy" in a region where religion is the doctrine of overwhelming choice. Not only is this United States Administration failing in this war and surrendering their allies to an unacceptable status quo, creating a dangerous indefensible situation in the Middle East, but its Intelligence community is using every wrong instrument to pressure and surrenders their enemies.This failure of effective action will inevitably lead to a major US setback in the area, for a misguided US policy will allow Teheran to force an Islamic take-over of the Levant, compounded by an upheaval of the Gulf States, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the entire region. The first US Intelligence miscalculation, by taking over Iraq, over-evaluated the Sistani Shiaa factor by discovering after a few years the dangerous influence of Teheran on its neighbors. Should the US course of events stay unchanged, Iran will have access to the Mediterranean sea, controlling the oil flow production, assisted by the Damascus regime, Hezbollah, Hamas, and all the Islamic terror groups that are placing Israel under a terror siege while waiting for Israel's collapse.Another of America’s greatest mistakes was pressuring Israel to preventing it from redrawing the geopolitical map of the terror regimes in the area, mainly Lebanon under Hezbollah, Damascus, and Teheran, collectively known as the Syrian-Iranian axis of terror. Jerusalem had the ability to change the events in Lebanon and Syria far more effectively than the United States ever could.Iran and Syria, along with a "quiet" Russia, are using delaying tactics to bring about a defeat of George W. Bush in the next election in order to create a new fait accompli of terror that will affect regional Oil production as well as the politics of the area.Iran's Islamic Revolution is one of the bloodiest rises to power of any century, and Iran by exporting its terror alliance to Lebanon, Syria, Israel, and Iraq, ensured the political survival of Teheran’s struggle that is now underway against a fragmented United States's political power structure.Should the US continue its politics of pressuring its allies for concessions to please the Saudis, as they did with Prime Minister Sharon in Gaza for a Peace of illusion, they will enter a power struggle that Ahmadinejad will certainly win against the US at the end of the day in the region. As Washington is dragging its feet in Iraq and over the nuclear issue, the Iranian strategy is far more clever, more operational, and more effective in the Middle East and debilitating for the United States. Yet, despite its aggressive terror path, this terror strategy can be destroyed and vanquished .This will not happen by using the ineffective United Nations tool as an up-front instrument to counter the terror of such Rogue States in the area, only military action will halt an Iranian advance into a regional, nuclear power and neutralize and defeat their terrorist paramilitary groups in the ME.Bachar el Assad and Ahmadinejad of Iran know that US sanctions mean weakness, for it will only prolong the corruption and blackmail of the West as Iran enhances its nuclear bomb capacity. For those who understand the Middle East, this cosmetic US-Saudi power struggle, now being played out against Iran and Syria, is doomed to failure.Syria and Iran will see the economic sanctions by the West as an opportunity to consolidate their positions on the ground. Using the showdown against the West, Syria and Iran, with Russia’s support, will deceive Washington and defeat it in the region by using a strategy of terror in Lebanon, Israel, and Iraq. The U.S. military misadventure in the Middle East is seen as a failure in the Islamic world as they know that the United States is politically in trouble in both Iraq and Afghanistan, therefore America’s options for dealing with Syria and Iran are limited.Economic sanctions will do little to damage this Axis of terror. Short of a regime change, the US mishandling of the area will result in the consolidation of the power of these regimes who will continue their campaign of terror and assassination in Iraq, Israel, and Lebanon, in order to consolidate their take over against the United States in the area and justify the effectiveness of their take over against the West.Gebran Tueni was assassinated within this context in Lebanon, only few days after FBI Director Robert Mueller visited Lebanon with a message of support from Washington. Syria reacted with Teheran’s blessing in sparking the assassination by telling the Lebanese that America will not bring Peace to your country .A serious indication of Washington intelligence failure is the weakness with which the Saudi-US alliance reacts to such terrorism. Syria has cleverly chosen to pick its fight with the West, because whomever controls the ground, controls substance in the Middle East. Iran controls a large part of Iraq Shiaa affiliates and Syria still controls many Shiaa radicals through Hezbollah and the Palestinian militias in Lebanon. The CIA and Prince Bandar were busy playing the Abdel Halim Khaddam card, a former Syrian Vice President empty of substance who cannot deliver anything but buy time for Damascus and give Syria another chance of survival in the region.This is enough failure in a time of war, Syria must be destroyed, not pampered and compromised as the CIA and the Saudis are articulating in their warfare against terrorism. Time is working against the Bush Administration in this war. There are unexplored different wild cards that will disintegrate and defeat the nexus of these "rogue states," otherwise Terrorism Incorporated will take shape and empower the entire region against the West.This strategy of failure from the US side will inevitability assist Iran in acquiring nuclear weapons and ensure to Iran the capability of threatening the whole Middle East as well as the United States.Without consolidating the ground and demilitarizing Hezbollah in Lebanon, the upcoming reception of Hariri's son at the White House will only compound the US failure for a bold solution versus terrorism in the Middle East. The Saudis have demonstrated a series of failures with their American appointed associates in countering the Iranian-Syrian terror offensive in Lebanon.To marginalize terror in the Middle East, Israel should take the offensive against Iran's nuclear capacity, against the Syrian regime by toppling it, and against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The countdown of the consequences of Iran's confrontation has started.Diplomatic pressure will backfire on the West, only precise military actions against the terror groups and toppling their sponsoring regime in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, will consolidate the West's strategy in consolidating a new Iraq and peaceful Middle East, anything else will be translated as a strategic failure and will empower Tehran and Damascus to use terror incentives to completely destroy the United States and assassinate their political allies and regimes one after the other in the Middle East.