Syria Braces for Inquiry in Lebanon Murder Case

By HASSAN M. FATTAH
Published: September 10, 2005
DAMASCUS, Syria, Sept. 9 -The senior United Nations investigator in the murder of a former Lebanese prime minister is expected here Monday, a visit that is already roiling the political waters as many here brace for further revelations.

In an increasingly tense atmosphere, security guards have become more prevalent and more obvious on the streets of Damascus, and the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, canceled a trip to the United Nations next week.
All this comes amid signs that the investigator, Detlev Mehlis, is looking closely at the Syrian government's possible involvement in the Feb. 14 car-bomb attack on the former prime minister, Rafik Hariri. The explosion, which left 21 dead, set off a public uprising and, ultimately, forced Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon.
Mr. Mehlis's visit, which follows the arrest of four senior Lebanese generals in connection with the killing, is intended to set the stage for a broader investigation. He is initially expected to interrogate senior Syrian security officials who were based in Lebanon, including Maj. Gen. Rustom Ghazali, former head of Syrian military intelligence in Beirut, as well as several of his associates. But many officials here fear that Mr. Mehlis may also interrogate much higher-level officials.
As a possible indication of his timeline, Mr. Mehlis on Friday sought a 40-day extension of his mandate, which was to end next week.
Mr. Assad dropped his planned trip to New York for the United Nations session on global poverty after warnings from the Bush administration that he would be isolated.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Friday that the investigation would be a top item on her agenda when she meets with foreign ministers at the General Assembly. "We continue to be concerned about the full implementation of the resolutions concerning Lebanon, and that the Mehlis investigation get full support and cooperation from all member states so that he can do his work," Ms. Rice said at a news conference in Washington.
In Damascus, Mr. Mehlis will try to build on information culled from senior Lebanese agents and numerous informants who have stepped forward to provide evidence and testimony in recent weeks, developments which led to the indictments of the four pro-Syrian Lebanese generals. The four suspects, Jamil al-Sayyed, Lebanon's former head of general security; Ali Hajj, former chief of the Lebanese police; Raymond Azar, a former military intelligence chief; and Mustafa Hamdan, the leader of Lebanon's National Guard, have been charged with murder by a Lebanese investigative judge.
The arrests and the continuing inquiry are helping to shift the political winds here, as the mood in the country has grown more foreboding.
"A month ago, many thought it's impossible that we would have had anything to do with the assassination," said Samir Aita, a political analyst and economic adviser. "Now, many people have doubts, and that's a major political change."
Damascus cafes were full this week and its markets bustled as an eerie sense of normalcy belied the crisis the city might soon face. But in stolen glances and whispered conversations, the city's growing anxiety bubbled to the surface.
Government officials have sought to put the best face on Mr. Mehlis's visit, saying that Syria has the most to gain from a full airing of the case.
"We would like to bring out the truth about Syria's role," said Buthaina Shaban, a government spokeswoman. "We believe that both Syria and Lebanon have been targeted in this investigation and hope we can set the record straight."
But as the investigation has inched closer to the government, many Syrians are bracing for a likely political storm. In recent weeks, Syrian opposition figures have been warned to refrain from discussing the issue.
"The whole country is on its knees waiting for Mehlis," said Yassin al-Haj Saleh, an opposition figure and writer. "But our greatest goal now is to avoid a total catastrophe."
What exactly will happen next is a subject of intense debate here.
Syrian analysts expect the government to hand over any low-level figures indicted in the investigation. But speculation abounds that Mr. Mehlis may go as far as interrogating Syria's interior minister and others in Mr. Assad's inner circle. That, many say, could link the government directly to the assassination and set off a cascade of problems.
The most immediate fear is that the country may face crippling sanctions, much like those imposed on Iraq in 1990. "Nobody is willing to sacrifice" for the government, said one prominent analyst, who asked not to be identified for fear of reprisals. "This is not about Palestine, nor about Iraq. It's about a fundamental defect in the regime that the regime itself has acknowledged."
No matter what happens, most here believe that Syria is headed for major changes after the investigation is completed. "We don't know what the change will be or will look like," said Abdel Salam Haykal, a magazine publisher and young entrepreneur. "But Syria will never be the same again."
Katherine Zoepf contributed reporting from Damascus for this article.