Hizbullah's military bluff fools friends and foes alike
By Adnan El-Ghoul - Daily Star staffSaturday, August 06, 2005Analysis
On the eve of the Syrian troops' withdrawal last April, Hizbullah leaders bid them a fond farewell, but did not shed any tears as their departure ensured the resistance group a much-sought measure of independence.In a recent speech, Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah revealed earlier U.S. plans to force the Syrians into pressuring the resistance to disarm. Had the U.S. taken this course, the architects of American diplomacy would have been on the right track.However, for one reason or another, the Americans chose instead to engage the international community through UN Security Council Resolution 1559, and pin their hopes on the anti-Syrian politicians inside Lebanon; the Americans hoped the international community could accomplish multiple objectives in one string of events. However, aside from ousting Syria, U.S. accomplishments have fallen far short of expectations and it is now too late to reconsider options at this stage.Whether this was due to America's miscalculation and the Lebanese opposition's confused priorities or not, many observers believe it was Hizbullah's impressive foresight, enabling it to address the advancing crisis long before it developed, which caused the failure of American objectives.No one seems to have an issue with the Party's political power but many demand Hizbullah dismantle its military wing.However, few realize that in the absence of Syrian domination, Hizbullah will have the ability to expand militarily beyond previous limitation.Iran, Hizbullah's true regional sponsor, was not able to provide military assistance without the Syrians' consent. Moreover, since its founding, the resistance has had to put up with Syrian threats of eradication or restrictions on the quality and quantity of its armory. During Hizbullah's recent visit to Iran, high-ranking Iranian officials praised the party's leadership in directing its political and military maneuvers and decided it was about time to reward them. Iran pledged to strengthen Hizbullah, viewing the group as increasingly useful as Western pressure mounts over the nuclear dispute. In addition, as long as Syria faces increasing American pressure, Damascus will continue to allow the transit of more sophisticated armaments from Tehran to Hizbullah. During his talks with the Iranians, Nasrallah was able to prove his party was capable of protecting its arms and putting them to good use, and so convince Tehran to supply the group with a new cache of sophisticated weapons.Hizbullah's skillful maneuvering led many to believe it already possessed such a sophisticated armory. Contrary to common belief, the size of resistance organization's true armory paled in comparison to that of similar militant groups.Many of it's traditional allies, such as Walid Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party, believed the "myth" and expressed serious concern over Hizbullah's "military might." Moreover, the Israelis also played a role in exaggerating Hizbullah's image through hysterical proclamations that the resistance possessed thousands of long-range missiles, to which the resistance leader happily acquiesced.Until this moment, the militarized division had played the role of a scarecrow, which Hizbullah's leadership had skillfully ingrained in the minds of its foes, followers and partners, many of whom supported the resistance purely rhetorically without taking any part in its decisions or military plans. However, it would be naive to believe such a bluff, despite its effectiveness, would have been sufficient to defuse any serious attempt to dismantle Hizbullah's fortified division.Disarming the resistance has been a very complicated process, not on account of its alleged military power, but rather because, politically, the Lebanese unique sectarian system prevents the exclusion of one of its biggest sect, the Shiites.However, despite serving as a protective shield, the sectarian makeup of the resistance may well be the cause of its downfall, unless the group manages to break out of its shell and become a nationwide movement.